The Hometrack UK House Price Index analyses housing market trends at a city level on a monthly basis – across 20 cities, plus regions, and nationally.
- Spike in 2 and 5 year fixed mortgage rates hits demand, down a third since mini budget
- Sales still being agreed at slower rate, from cash buyers and those with cheap loans – pipeline of nearly 293,000 sales in progress
- No signs of any impact on pricing expected in Q4
- Outlook for 2023 depends largely on trajectory for mortgage rates
- Sustained 6% mortgage rates would lead to double-digit price falls eroding ‘paper’ gains over pandemic but few negative equity cases
- More likely outcome is a fall in mortgage rates towards 4% and a modest decline in house prices of up to 5% over 2023 with 1m sales
- Robust labour market and scarcity of supply will support pricing but markets in southern England to feel the greatest impact