The Hometrack UK House Price Index analyses housing market trends at a city level on a monthly basis – across 20 cities, plus regions, and nationally.
Executive summary:
- Spike in 2 and 5 year fixed mortgage rates hits demand, down a third since mini budget
- Sales still being agreed at slower rate, from cash buyers and those with cheap loans – pipeline of nearly 293,000 sales in progress
- No signs of any impact on pricing expected in Q4
- Outlook for 2023 depends largely on trajectory for mortgage rates
- Sustained 6% mortgage rates would lead to double-digit price falls eroding ‘paper’ gains over pandemic but few negative equity cases
- More likely outcome is a fall in mortgage rates towards 4% and a modest decline in house prices of up to 5% over 2023 with 1m sales
- Robust labour market and scarcity of supply will support pricing but markets in southern England to feel the greatest impact
You can download the latest full report online from the Hometrack website.